Ed Chamberlin: Chelsea swagger

[sake]

Ed Chamberlin reflects on the Barclays Premier League action and looks ahead to the racing at Cheltenham in his latest column.


That must be one of the shortest ever prices at this stage, with only 11 matches of the Premier League season played. Jose Mourinho's team passed another test at Anfield last weekend and continue to look in a class of their own.

Arsenal are out to 33/1 to finish on top after a second capitulation in a week. Craig Bellamy and Jamie Carragher dissected their problems brilliantly after the game at Swansea on Super Sunday.

Both suggested they'd gone backwards since last season. That has to be a big worry for their chances of finishing high up in the table. Where would they be without the brilliant Alexis Sanchez?
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Arsenal are now 4/9 with Sky Bet to qualify for their customary place in the Champions League. That is going to be a fascinating market over the next few weeks and months.

Outside of Chelsea, none of the Premier League giants are putting their hands up as top four certainties. I'm sure Manchester City will come good and although they are out to 6/1 so retain their title, they are still trading at 1/50 for a top four finish.

Beyond them the market is starting to open up. Manchester United are an uneasy 8/13 chance, Liverpool have taken a walk out to 11/4, while Everton and Tottenham have both drifted alarmingly to 9/1.

The team that are shortening all the time are Southampton. You could name your price in the summer but the Saints were shortened again to 2/1 to finish in the top four after making it eight wins out of nine.

Ronald Koeman's in-form side play Aston Villa next before the acid test comes with games against Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the space of 10 days. We will know if they are genuine contenders in the next few weeks.

In the meantime focus switches to the international stage for the next few days. Scotland (11/4 to win with Sky Bet) against England (10/11) will be a highlight. It's live on Sky Sports on Tuesday night and should be a fiery ‘friendly’.
Horse racing

The international break gives me a rare chance to head to the races with the family on Sunday and join up with the Sky Bet team at Cheltenham, where they are sponsoring the trial for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

It promises to be a brilliant three days at HQ as the National Hunt season steps up a gear. It then gets on a major roll as the Betfair Chase, Hennessy Gold Cup and Tingle Creek follow in quick succession and before we know it will be the Christmas feast of racing and King George Day at Kempton.

It’s surprising only one winner at the 2013 Paddy Power meeting followed up with success at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival (can you name the horse?)

Despite that there will be Festival clues galore over the next three days. The card on Friday is well up to scratch but to my eye, it's going to be hard to find winners and Saturday and Sunday is when it's all happening.
Saturday

The Paddy Power Chase (2.30) is typically competitive and with this in mind, I'm ignoring those at the head of the market, instead taking a chance on 25/1 shot, EASTLAKE.

He is exposed over two miles but staying on third behind Ma Filleule, in the Topham Chase (extended 2m5f) offers plenty of encouragement about him staying the trip.

It was suggested a while back that he is a pure two-miler, but as a brother to World Hurdle winner, More Of That, you can see why I'm more than hopeful he'll see it out well enough.

Versatile on the ground, I think he represents great each-way value to run into the places at least. Present View did this column a favour over course and distance in March and rates an obvious danger.
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The weather will play a major role in how some of my fancies will run, none more than the Nicky Henderson-trained SNAKE EYES, who could get us off to a flying start in the opening race (12.40).

On good ground, he'd almost be my bet of the weekend, and while he handles soft ground, I'll be halving the size of my stake if the going is any worse than the forecast good to soft.

He was reckoned to be one of Henderson's best prospects at the start of last season but things never really worked out for him and he ended a light campaign with a solid sixth in the Boylesports Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown in January.

Ed Chamberlin "Snake Eyes starts the campaign on a mark of 123, even he doesn't finish it on a mark of 140-plus, I'll be disappointed, not to mention poorer for the experience of following him over a cliff!"
Ed Chamberlin

OUR FATHER (1.50) is best caught fresh, something the betting public are well aware of, sending him off favourite for the Hennessy Gold Cup around this time twelve months ago. He let his backers down that day, but has a major chance to atone in a much lesser race, taking on a bunch of slowcoaches over an extended 3m3f.

Things didn't get any better for him after Newbury, resulting in a drop down the weights to a season-starting mark of 136. That is too attractive to ignore, and I expect David Pipe to have him ripe for this.

BITOFAPUZZLE is sure to be popular in the last (4.05), taking on members of her own sex in the bumper. She is unbeaten in two bumper starts to date, hammering respectable opposition each time, and my advice is not to be put off by the 4lb penalty. She is a big mare and the steadier won't detract from her chances.

Both wins have been achieved on sharp tracks, but she won a point and has plenty of stamina for this. Harry Fry knows the time of day with this type of horse and he rates her highly - She's the best bet of the weekend.
Sunday

Barry Geraghty is missing out on the Jezki ride to partner VANITEUX in the Greatwood Hurdle, and while I feel his arm was twisted by Henderson, his ante-post backers will be relieved to have the main man on board.

An improver last season, he finished his campaign with an excellent third behind Vautour in the Sky Bet Supreme and the handicapper has given him a chance with a mark of 147.

The fact he is shouldering topweight, tells you this is a substandard renewal and provided the going isn't too testing, I expect the five-year-old to run a huge race on his reappearance. The Willie Mullins-trained, Daneking, is a big danger.
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DODGING BULLETS can make the most of Sire De Grugy's late defection from the Shloer Chase (2.40).

He is probably better served by more of a test of speed, but he is a course and distance winner and should get away with it, in a race lacking a star turn. A tame end to his season can be put down to a grind in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February, when he was collared late on by Module.

A handy turnaround at the weights means he should gain revenge on Tom George's chaser. Simply Ned is worth his place near the head of the market but for me, his presence merely helps the Dodging Bullets price.