Swansea to see off Liverpool

[sake]

Ben Coley previews the Monday Night Football clash between Liverpool and Swansea and is prepared to chance the visitors.


1pt Swansea to beat Liverpool at 9/2 (General)

0.5pt Swansea to beat Liverpool to nil at 11/1
Liverpool v Swansea (2000 GMT)

There's a general feeling that Liverpool are improving at the moment and it's one I tend to agree with. Whether they've yet established 'momentum' is another matter, given that they beat only the top two sides in the relegation market in December plus Bournemouth of the Championship, but certainly they're in better form than was the case in November when losing four and winning just one of their six matches. Does this entitle them to be 8/11 favourites to beat a side three points and one place higher than them in the table? I don't believe it does and in my eyes there's definite value in backing the visitors at 9/2. Garry Monk's side were in front with five minutes to go when last visiting Anfield, a Capital One Cup game in October, and it really isn't a concern that they've never won an away league game at Liverpool. I'm much more inclined to focus on the fact that their away form is pretty solid this season - they've won at Old Trafford and Hull, lost by just a goal at both Manchester City and Stoke and secured a well-deserved point at Everton - and that they arrive here in form having won their last two. In Wilfried Bony they have a proper goalscorer, the like of which is distinctly lacking in Liverpool's side which may once again be spearheaded by Raheem Sterling, and they can afford to run him into the ground as he's away on international duty for the Ivory Coast at the start of 2015. Indeed, Bony had the day off at Hull before returning against Aston Villa last week, a game in which we saw that he's not the only threat the visitors can boast here. It's a slight concern that Jefferson Montero is unlikely to be passed fit but that would look to be the only real issue for a side who can frustrate the hosts and prove more ruthless in attack. For Liverpool, Simon Mignolet is set to return to the side but there remain injury problems at the back with Glen Johnson and Dejan Lovren out while there has to be a doubt as to whether Steven Gerrarrd is asked to play twice in four days - albeit the fact that Liverpool had an extra day off helps on that score. The bottom line with Liverpool is just that they're over-bet week-in, week-out and while last season it often didn't matter thanks to two superb goalscorers, this year they're too often found out by a lack of killer instinct in the final third. Before Arsenal let them back in prior to Christmas, the Reds had managed just two goals in home clashes with Chelsea, Stoke, Sunderland and Hull and they've only scored two or more in six of their 18 Premier League fixtures this season. With Bony and co likely to offer a constant threat, I think the hosts will need at least two to win and that makes odds-on look decidely risky. Backing Swansea to simply avoid defeat is very tempting at 13/10 but they have enough about them to make it three wins on the bounce and I'll take a chance that they can do so. It's also worth throwing some loose change at an away win to nil at Coral's standout 11/1. Liverpool have lost without scoring three times already in the league and all the right ingredients are there for a similarly frustrating night for the home supporters. If you disagree and want a way to get with Liverpool, Sky Bet and Bwin both go 11/4 that Sterling scores in a home win and the case for such a scenario is pretty obvious.