Reds look there for the taking

[sake]

Ben Coley previews Wednesday's Champions League action and fancies Ludogorets to give Liverpool real problems.

3pts Ludogorets and the draw at 19/20

1.5pt Dortmund to beat Arsenal at 21/10

Let's cut to the chase - Ludogorets look a fantastic bet to get something from their Champions League clash with Liverpool on Wednesday night.

They may be bottom of Group B but only by goal difference, having matched Liverpool's tally of three points from four games.

It could and perhaps should have been different. The Bulgarian side held Liverpool for 82 minutes in the reverse fixture before falling behind, only to show fantastic resolve to score a late equaliser in their first ever match at this stage of the competition.

Then, stand-in goalkeeper Milan Borjan made it a debut to forget with a reckless lunge to take out Javier Manquillo, the result being a penalty which Steven Gerrard would convert to get his side out of jail.

You might've expected such a last-gasp victory to have sparked Liverpool into life, but they've won just three of their subsequent 13 matches, all by a goal against bottom-half Premier League sides.

More recently, they've been losing - four in a row to be precise. One-goal defeats to Real Madrid and Chelsea are fine - good, even - but the Reds rolled over at Crystal Palace on Sunday and got exactly what they deserved when suffering a 1-0 defeat at Newcastle.

Everyone knows they've got problems and not just the lack of confidence boss Brendan Rodgers is keen to blame. It's blindingly obvious but bears repeating - take Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge out of this side and you have a poor defence, a poor attack, and a midfield left with too much to do.

Yet here they are again, even-money chances to win away from home in the Champions League. You might argue that a 1-0 defeat at Real is a good formline but the score does not reflect the match; it's also important to note that Liverpool also lost by the same margin at Basle.

Ludogorets meanwhile have played 13 home games so far this season and they've lost one of them - again to Real Madrid. That defeat could also have been by a greater margin than the solitary goal that split the sides but even so, those other 12 games without defeat are surely worthy of greater respect than has been given by the layers.

It may not be the most competitive of leagues in Bulgaria but Ludogorets beat pace-setting CSKA Sofia 2-0 at home, while a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at the weekend sets them up nicely for a huge game.
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With both sides on three points, a win here and Ludogorets will be within touching distance of the Europa League, which would be a superb achievement in a tough group. They'll face Real Madrid in the final round of fixtures so it would be by no means done and dusted, but certainly they must win to hold a chance - and I think they can.

However, the best way to bet here looks to be simply to oppose Liverpool and Coral's 19/20 about Ludogorets and the draw looks a really good bit of business.

Arsenal need only a point from their clash with Dortmund at the Emirates Stadium but there's no doubt whatsoever that they will be all out for three points.

First and foremost, back-to-back Premier League defeats for the first time in nearly two years leave Arsene Wenger's side in desperate need of positives, but they'll also believe they can still top Group D even if Dortmund would only need a point at home against Anderlecht in their final game even if losing this one.

Jurgen Klopp's side are also in need of wins as their domestic form remains appalling. They currently sit 16th of 18 with just 11 points from 12 games, the latest of which came after they squandered a two-goal lead away from home at the weekend.

With Marco Reus stretchered off having gone down clutching his ankle once more - he's absent until next year - Klopp has much to ponder as he defends a perfect record in the competition thus far.

Of course, Wenger will also be without a key midfielder in the shape of the injured Jack Wilshere and put simply this is a game between two talented but fragile sides with a lack of real incentive on offer.

All this being said, Dortmund look decent value at 2/1 and are worth a small bet.

Domestic troubles have been there since August but it hasn't stopped Dortmund in Europe. They played Arsenal off the park in the reverse, winning 2-0, and have won their other three games 4-0, 3-0 and 4-1.

Much will depend on which Arsenal side turns up and if it's the one that pounded Galatasary for an hour, this bet will be in trouble. Then again, we saw that side go 3-0 up on Anderlecht in a similar time-frame before pressing the self-destruct button so it's important not to dwell on what they can do when at their absolute best.

No, the simple truth is that Dortmund have been much, much better than Arsenal in the Champions League and therefore should be backed as underdogs, particularly after they won at the Emirates last season.