Czech mates worth a wager

[sake]

Ben Coley previews Sunday's Euro 2016 qualifiers and expects the Czech Republic to end Iceland's winning run.


Wales sit top of Group B as they set about qualifying for Euro 2016, but the layers reckon that will all change following a trip east to face Belgium on Sunday night.

Marc Wilmot's side thrashed Andorra to kick start their campaign before securing a deserved draw in Bosnia and they also have the benefit of a run-out last week which saw them beat an improving Iceland side 3-1.

Wilmot's opposite number Chris Coleman insists his side have nothing to fear and so he should, given that among his ranks is one of the world's best players and that Wales managed a 1-1 draw here in their failed bid to qualify for Brazil 2014.

That point came courtesy of a late Aaron Ramsey strike and, while the Arsenal midfielder hasn't quite been at his best so far this season, along with Gareth Bale he provides a quality not even this star-studded Belgium side can boast.

Of course, the Belgians have much greater depth to their ranks - despite the absence of captain Vincent Kompany - and there will be some long faces among the home crowd at the King Baudouin Stadium should they fail to justify quotes of around the 1/4 mark.

All that being said, I'm actually quite tempted to side with the visitors here. To my eye their price - 12/1 - places too much emphasis on their inability to win at a canter against sides like Andorra and, to a lesser extent, Cyprus.

You have to go back a long way landslide Wales victories and it's therefore very much a case of job done so far that they have managed seven points to sit atop the standings.

As well as that draw in Belgium they went down fighting in a 2-1 defeat to Macedonia and while Belgium have come a long way in a short period, their reputation perhaps now overplays their ability.

A look at their last qualifying campaign reveals one-goal wins at home against Slovakia, Serbia and the aforementioned Macedonia and that was a theme which continue at the World Cup itself.

So, while a home win is probable the value might be in Wales +2 on the handicap at evens, or in a Belgium win with both teams scoring at upwards of 2/1. I'll keep stakes smaller and speculate on the latter, which appeals as the better option given the undoubted quality in both attacks.

Arguably the game of the day comes from Group A where one or both sides will lose their 100% record as Czech Republic play host to Iceland.

The latter have been one of the success stories of the campaign thus far, winning all three of their matches without conceding which is no small feat regardless of the opposition but becomes a remarkable achievement once we see that they've beaten the Netherlands as well as Turkey and Latvia.

However, this might be where the run ends as this free-scoring Czech side look to have that little bit more quality and should revel in their role as favourites.

We saw on Friday that Northern Ireland were unable to pick up where they'd left off and I just wonder whether Iceland will find their momentum halted by both a break in the calendar and that friendly defeat to Belgium last week.

With that in mind 4/5 about a home win is a price worth taking.

The layers are giving Iceland all the respect they deserve but I'll be both surprised and disappointed if Pavel Vrba's side aren't able to win well, especially with their manager set to return to the home of Victoria Plzen, who he guided to the title before taking up his current role.